Abstract:
This case study examines the 2015 Umpqua Community College shooting perpetrated by Chris Harper-Mercer, utilizing the Bolante Threat Assessment Guide (B-TAG) to analyze the perpetrator’s social connectedness and coping strategies. The study retrospectively investigates key factors that may have contributed to the violent outcome, including Harper-Mercer’s history of mental health issues, social isolation, fascination with previous mass shootings, and acquisition of firearms. By applying the B-TAG framework, researchers identified several potential warning signs, such as chronic anger issues, expressions of hopelessness, and concerning online communications. The analysis reveals missed opportunities for intervention, particularly regarding Harper-Mercer’s turbulent relationship with his mother and his sharing of extremist content online. This research highlights the importance of early recognition of warning behaviors, the need for improved mental health support systems, and the critical role of community reporting in preventing mass violence. The findings contribute to the ongoing discourse on threat assessment and violence prevention, offering insights that may inform future intervention strategies and policies.
Keywords: Mass shooting, threat assessment, B-TAG, violence prevention, mental health, social isolation
Authors: Rebecca Bolante, Ronald Glaus, Douglas Ladd, Timothy Wilson, Katherine Snyder, and Blue Wonhof
September 10, 2024
Status: Preprint
